Uncertain progress in Barcelona adds to speculation over Copenhagen deal

Much of the five day United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) negotiations in Barcelona this week are taking place behind closed doors and so far little detail has emerged on what, if anything, has been achieved. 

Areas on which participants hope to make progress include adaptation, technology co-operation and action to reduce emissions from deforestation in developing countries.

“Workable middle ground options have emerged on these items that can be taken forward and concretised,” said UNFCCC executive secretary, Yvo de Boer at the start of the week. 

“We have only five days to achieve this, only five days to further narrow down options and come up with working texts. But I am convinced that it can be done.”

Opening the meeting on Monday, de Boer set the week’s negotiations up as being more for the backroom-boys than the front-men. 

His assumption seemed to be that the meeting was unlikely to resolve the big issues on finance and emission reduction targets, but was critical in terms of putting the essential architecture in place to ensure that the big issues could be dealt with at Copenhagen.

But however much behind-the-scenes progress is being made this week, when the meeting has emerged onto the public arena, the signs have not been good.

Yesterday African nations boycotted UNFCCC meetings in protest at the lack of ambition in the 2020 greenhouse gas reduction targets developed countries have set themselves. 

A member of the Democratic Republic of Congo delegation, Kabeya Tshikuku told Reuters: “Africa believes that the other groups are not taking talks seriously enough, not urgently enough.” 

Although a statement on Department of Environment and Climate Change’s (DECC’s) website today expressed sympathy with developing countries “that will suffer the most from climate change, and yet have contributed least to its causes,” there was also a sense of frustration at progressed being blocked.

“The UK is keen to secure a high ambition outcome in Copenhagen and given the short time we have until that meeting, believe that blocking groups will not facilitate this outcome,” the statement continued. “We must continue to work on all the elements necessary to secure a deal.”

How firm and detailed any deal is likely to be, remains to be seen. Last week the UNFCCC refused to comment on speculation that the UN was preparing the ground for the possibility that the climate talks in Copenhagen in December will not produce a legally-binding agreement.

Yvo de Boer’s comments to a UNFCCC meeting today will do nothing to quell the speculation that Copenhagen is more likely to deliver a framework than a deal.

He said: “Copenhagen does not need to come up with all the fine-print of a climate change deal. But it needs to ensure that the heart of an agreed outcome is functional and that implementation can swiftly begin.”

The prospects of a legally binding deal in Copenhagen will not have been helped by this week's news that the US is unlikely to pass its domestic climate change legislation before the end of the year.