Tackle climate change or a pint of beer will cost £18, report warns
Peta Hodge
29th October 2009
A new Friends of the Earth report warns that climate change could cause the price of staple foods, such as bread and beer, to increase by four and a half times the normal inflation rate.
The report, issued with an eye to the UN climate talks in Copenhagen in December, says we could be paying £6.50 for a loaf of bread, £7 for a box of cornflakes and £18 for a pint of beer by 2030 and predicts that food poverty in the UK will increase significantly unless global emissions are curtailed fast and the other drivers of increasing food prices are tackled.
The report has been produced for the campaign group by Ray Hammond, visiting lecturer at the University of Oxford's Institute for the Future of Humanity, who has based his figures for future price rises on the assumption that the changing climate will put extra stress on land and resources around the world, exacerbating the existing food crisis.
Hammond cites a report published in the journal Science in January 2009, which concluded that yields of staple crops such as rice and corn could drop by as much as 40 per cent in tropical and subtropical regions by the end of the century, based purely on the impact of increasing peak temperatures during the growing season.
By 2030 Hammond predicts that on current trends we will be paying a massive £15.21 for one kilogramme of basmati rice (compared with £1.69 now and £3.38 with normal inflation) and £17.91 for a one litre corn oil (compared with £1.99 now and £3.98).
His report points out that the price of Britain’s national drink – a cup of tea – is already increasing, following droughts in Kenya, Sri Lanka and India. The price of tea on the world market has actually risen by more than 30 per cent in one year – although UK retailers have, for now, not passed this on to their customers.
"Our global food production is already precarious – and climate change threatens to tip it into disaster,” said Hammond.
Friends of the Earth’s head of climate, Mike Childs, agreed: “This vision of life in 2030 shows that life with climate change won't be pretty, it'll be pricey – the cost of simple foods like bread and rice will rocket and millions more people will go hungry here in the UK alone.”
Asked to comment on the report’s findings, a spokesperson for Waitrose said: “We are always mindful of climate change and ensure that our customers do not loose out on either quality or price.”
A spokesperson for the Soil Association, which is holding an international conference on the global food crisis in London next month, said: “The world’s food systems are facing unprecedented challenges.
“Against a background of ‘the perfect storm’ of climate change, water and fossil fuel depletion, population expansion and the shrinking area of agricultural land, new models of sustainable food systems are urgently needed."
In his report, Hammond echoes Friends of the Earth's call for a strong and fair agreement in Copenhagen. “Otherwise many people in the UK will face a Dickensian struggle to afford food and millions of people in the developing world will be condemned to early deaths," he said.
Childs added: “At the UN climate talks in Copenhagen in just 40 days, rich countries must show leadership by stumping up hard cash for developing countries to grow cleanly and adapt to the effects of climate change already putting millions of lives at risk.
"Rich nations must also slash their emissions first and fast – cutting them by at least 40 per cent by 2020, without offsetting, to get us on the road to a strong and fair climate agreement which will safeguard the future of our planet and everyone on it."