New planning tool for energy could help meet emissions targets

The innovative Energy System Model (ESM), which is being developed by the Energy Technologies Institute (ETI), is intended to identify the energy technologies that would make the biggest contribution to meeting the Government’s targets, while at the same time minimising the technical and financial risks involved.

The ETI says the effectiveness of around one hundred different ‘technology families’ are being analysed by the model, including carbon capture and storage (CCS), wind and biofuels.

Each will be tested against future energy demand patterns for buildings, transport and industry, established via a number of 2050 scenarios determined by the model. The ETI hopes the ESM will provide as comprehensive a map of energy supply and demand in 2050 as possible.

Commenting on the launch of the new model, Lord Hunt, Minister for Sustainable Development and Energy Innovation, said: “The way we generate electricity is set to change dramatically over the coming decades, with greater reliance on low-carbon sources like renewables, nuclear and clean coal. The ETI's Energy System Model will be an important tool for both Government and the energy sector in determining how we can make that shift in the most effective way, using the most appropriate technology mix and maximising our contribution to the fight against climate change.”

Established in 2007, the ETI is a UK-based company made up of global businesses – including BP, Caterpillar, EDF Energy, E.ON UK, Rolls-Royce and Shell – and the UK Government, with the remit of bringing forward projects that create affordable, reliable, clean energy for heat, power and transport. According to its chief executive, Dr David Clark, the primary purpose of the ESM is to decide which technologies the ETI should develop and demonstrate.

How quickly modelled scenarios will translate into the deployment of real-life technologies generating low carbon energy is not clear at this stage, Dr Clark described the launch of the ESM as “the first phase in the life of the model, the construction – if you like – of the means of calculating more detailed results for analysis as the basis of determining how the UK’s energy system should be shaped”.

He said that the the initial outputs from the model are due to be fed into the ETI’s annual strategy review process in November and will form an important element of that process.

In a written submission to the Energy and Climate Change Select Committe in March, the ETI offered a sneak-preview of the direction the model is likely to point the Government in terms of developing an energy strategy that meets its climate change goals. It said: “ Based on [our] modelling work to date it is likely that the achievement of the UK's longer-term security of supply and climate change goals (in particular the 2050 objectives) will be best met by the UK's electricity networks evolving as part of an overall optimised UK energy system solution. This suggests the need for an integrated approach in respect of infrastructure development and behaviour across the UK's electricity, transport and heat sectors.

“In view of this we believe that treating the UK energy sector as a collection of independent sub-systems with minimal interaction between sectors is unlikely to provide the most optimal long-term solutions to delivering the UK's energy objectives. Hence the vision for Britain's electricity networks should actually be a constituent part of a broader vision for the UK's energy system infrastructure.

Although the ESM has been developed principally to help the ETI with its own work, Dr Clark said: “We expect that it will be valuable to our members, including [the] Government, to help decisions they may make regarding the technologies to be considered as priorities for investment and development.”

He added: “The modelling tool could be configured to apply to other countries or parts of the UK in more detail although we have no specific plans to do this at the moment.”