G8 agrees to limit global warming, but uncertainty remains over Copenhagen deal

They also agreed to cut their nations' greenhouse gas emissions by 80 percent by 2050 and the rest of the world by 50 per cent by the same date – something many see as important measures to achieving an agreement at the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen in December.

However, no indication was given as to how the targets would be met and, crucially, China and India failed to sign up to the global 50 per cent cuts by 2050. Moreover, the statement issued Wednesday failed to pin down 1990 – after which emissions in most industrialised countries rose – as the baseline year of when the 80 per cent cuts should start from, meaning some countries could make more modest cuts.

The G8 is made up of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK and the US. It is the first time the 'two celsius' goal has been adopted by the US, Russia, Japan and Canada, but Germany, Britain, France and Italy agreed to it along with the rest of the European Union back in 1996.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown described the G8 agreement as "very significant", saying it paved the way for a global agreement in Copenhagen. "I hope tomorrow when we meet other [non-G8] countries we'll follow that through," he told the BBC.

However, a Reuters report today quoted Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists saying: "They are running out of time toward Copenhagen."

On the two celsius target he added: "It's progress to set a goal based on science. But it's a missed opportunity if they don't set clear 2050 and 2020 targets about how to reach that goal."


Many climate campaigners had seen this week’s G8 summit, with the meeting of the 17 countries that make up the Major Economies Forum tomorrow, as an important step to securing an agreement at Copenhagen.

But while the G8 wants nations to sign up to 50 per cent reduction in world greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 – in line with the UK Government’s ‘Road to Copenhagen' manifesto published last month – it seems this has been blocked by India and China.  

At a press briefing earlier on Wednesday, Mike Froman, the US’s Deputy National Security Advisor for International Economic Affairs, said the Major Economies Forum declaration would be an important step towards achieving a deal in Copenhagen, but he acknowledged that much work still needed to be done to achieve a global climate deal in December.

“The Major Economies Forum declaration deals with the whole set of issues around Copenhagen, including mitigation, adaptation, financing, and technology," he said. “Our view is that it represents a significant step forward in terms of adding political momentum on the key issues to be dealt with in the UN process, but that there is still a lot of work to be done and these are difficult issues and the negotiators will be meeting going forward to try and resolve them.”

A report released on Wednesday by market intelligence firm Point Carbon, however, suggests the fate of the Waxman-Markey Bill – the first comprehensive climate and energy bill in the US – may be a more significant indicator of whether or not a deal is struck in Copenhagen.

Point Carbon’s analysis suggests that if the Waxman-Markey Bill – which was passed by the US House of Representatives last month – is passed in the US Senate by December, there is a good chance of global deal being achieved in Copenhagen. It puts the Bill’s chance of success at “more than 50 per cent”.

But Point Carbon’s analysis suggests that a deal at Copenhagen, if it happens at all, is likely to fall a long way short of the emission cuts needed to meet the two celsius goal. To do this, UN scientists have suggested developed nations need to make cuts in greenhouse gas emissions of between 25 and 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.

“If a deal is signed, we expect the targets to be 15 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020, with the EU pledging to cut its emissions by 30 per cent and the US by seven per cent below their 1990 levels,” says Kjetil Røine, manager at Point Carbon and author of its report.

Scientists have warned that even a two per cent rise in global temperatures could lead to catastrophic climate change effects.