Economic downturn could offer climate change lifeline, says IEA

In an excerpt of its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2009 report – presented earlier than usual this week to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) climate change talks in Bangkok – the agency says the effects of the financial and economic crisis on the energy sector worldwide means CO2 emissions could fall by as much as three per cent this year – steeper than at any time in the last 40 years. Without taking any further action, the report argues, this reduction means emissions in 2020 would be five per cent lower than the IEA had estimated just 12 months ago.

Rather than presenting an excuse to do nothing, though, the IEA wants its research to convince policy-makers to take the right action promptly in order to combat climate change.

In a statement, the agency says the economic downturn has created an opportunity to put the global energy system on a trajectory to stabilise GHG emissions at 450 parts per million (ppm) of CO2-equivalent – in line with an increase in global temperature of around two degrees Celsius.

“This gives us a chance to make real progress towards a clean energy future, but only if the right policies are put in place promptly,” said IEA executive director Nobuo Tanaka. “The success of the UNFCCC process is crucial in this regard.

“The message is simple and stark: if the world continues on the basis of today's energy and climate policies, the consequences of climate change will be severe. Energy is at the heart of the problem – and so must form the core of the solution.”

Clearly wanting to impress the importance of reaching a global deal on climate change in Copenhagen in December, Tanaka said he had taken “the unprecedented decision to present an exceptional early release” of the WEO 2009 report.

Under its ‘450 ppm Scenario’ the use of fossil fuels, says the IEA, would peak before 2020, with energy-related CO2 emissions just six per cent higher in 2020 than in 2007. But it would require huge investments and emission cuts of 3.8 gigatonnes (Gt) worldwide by 2020 to achieve the scenario. The IEA said China, in particular, would have to play a critical role in the global combat against climate change.

“The biggest challenge will be to ensure there is funding to back this energy transformation, with substantial support for developing countries,” said Mr. Tanaka, who added that the IEA 450 scenario was “the energy pathway to green growth. “

The full WEO 2009 report will be launched in London on November 10 2009.