Drop emissions to zero to avoid dangerous climate change, says Met Office
Elaine Brass
18th November 2009
The Met Office has sent out a warning that carbon emissions will need to be reduced to close to zero by the end of this century if a mean rise of 2 °C – the widely acknowledged ‘safe’ level of temperature rise – is to be avoided.
In its latest report on climate change, the Met Office states that if this curb on emissions is not met, the end of the century looks bleak for Europe, with insurance costs rising, severe weather conditions and negative impacts on food and farming.
Using climate mapping projections, the 'ENSMBLES' report shows the UK faces a 15 per cent increase in property damage from storms, increased winter storms over North West Europe, rise in heat stress and mortality from high temperatures in Greece and forest fires increasing across Scandinavia.
The report, launched yesterday at a Met Office symposium in Exeter, is the culmination of a five-year research project, the biggest ever integrated climate change research project involving 66 institutes across Europe and led by the Met Office Hadley Centre. It has been funded by the European Commission.
John Mitchell, director of Climate Science at the Met Office and ENSEMBLES co-ordinator, said: “This latest research emphasises the necessity to make drastic cuts in emissions as quickly and as soon as possible if we are to avoid dangerous climate change and highlights the importance of the negotiations that will take place in Copenhagen in December.”
The findings are based on the development of a new climate mitigation scenario that uses concentrations of greenhouse gases as a starting point, so climate modellers are able to establish what level of emissions would need to be achieved to restrict global temperature rises.