Copenhagen: will US and China climate detente deliver a deal?
Sue Wheat
18th November 2009
With just 17 days to go until the Copenhagen Climate Summit, there is renewed optimism about the prospects for a global deal on climate change.
The summit had been expected to ratify a new global treaty to replace the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012.
The prospects for such a deal appeared to be fading last week, with the UK Government admitting that the Copenhagen agreement was likely to be a watered down political deal, and would not be legally binding.
Secretary of State for Climate Change Ed Miliband told MPs that climate negotiations were moving “too slowly and not going well”. The gloomy predictions were based on the fact that carbon-capping legislation is stalled in the US Senate, and where reinforced by US President Barack Obama’s comments that time to secure a legally binding agreement in Copenhagen had run out.
But in the past few days, statements from the leaders of the world’s biggest polluting nations have revived hopes for a comprehensive climate deal. President Obama and Chinese premier Hu Jintao have said they aim to set comprehensive targets for reducing emissions, with President Obama conceding that as China and the USA expand their economies and populations, they both needed a way to minimise the impact of increased energy use. "Both countries have a great interest in finding new strategies to combat climate change," he said.
President Obama's statement that Copenhagen should end with a deal that has "immediate operational effect" has been welcomed by climate ministers attending a pre-meeting in Denmark.
Meanwhile, global news sources say a joint communique, in which the US and Chinese leaders state that the Copenhagen deal should include emission reduction targets for rich nations and a declaration of action to ease greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries has ‘breathed new life’ into hopes for a successful climate agreement.
With the US and China accounting for 40 per cent of the world's emissions, following through on these positive messages is crucial for the success of the Copenhagen summit.
There are more encouraging signs that China and the US have agreed to expand co-operation on climate change, energy and the environment and help produce positive outcomes from the Copenhagen conference. But some experts believe that while President Obama says the US and China will break new ground in their partnership on clean energy technology, the messages of cooperation could be diluted by the competitive instincts of businesses and politicians who are reluctant to share funding and technology with a rival.
Meanwhile, a number of commentators predict that an agreement at Copenhagen will go right down to the wire and could be harder to implement than Kyoto.
Addressing the growing distrust between rich and poor nations about who is going to fund, and by how much, climate adaptation and low carbon development in the developing world will also be crucial to the success of the Danish summit.
What is clear, however, is that the positive signals from the US and Chinese leaders could not have come sooner. And after days in which national leaders have been downplaying expectations for Copenhagen, Ed Miliband has added his voice to those who believe the statements from the US and Chinese leaders have restored ambitions for the summit. “The aim of Copenhagen continues to be to get a comprehensive and ambitious agreement. [The] affirmation from Presidents Obama and Hu that this is their ambition is very welcome and necessary,” said Miliband.