Calls for shift into higher gear at UN climate change talks, as all eyes are on US

But all eyes will be on what the US brings to the table, providing some indication of the new Barack Obama administration’s objectives on climate change, according to analysts.

The 12-day Poznan conference is a crucial staging post in the international negotiations on climate change, launched in Bali last December, and concluding in Copenhagen at the end of 2009.

It brings together more than 160 countries including those that have signed up the Kyoto Protocol and some that have signed up to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), including the United States.

“The position of the US and particularly where it stands when it comes to negotiating binding emission obligations, is crucial for the negotiation dynamics and will determine whether we will get an ambitious agreement in Copenhagen,” commented Kristian Tangen, a senior partner at Point Carbon, the energy and environmental market intelligence provider. “Poznan is not likely to provide much clarity in this regard, but at least we will get a somewhat clearer view where other countries stand.”

Also seen as crucial is how the global economic crisis will play out at the conference and whether it will divert politcial attention away from meeting new climage change objectives.

The EC said it would be pressing for progress on a range of issues for a new global agreement next year, including a clear work programme to guide the negotiations in 2009.

The European Union has already committed to reduce its emissions by at least 20 per cent on 1990 levels by 2020. It wants to see a future framework on climate change – to cover the period after 2012 when the Kyoto Protocol emission targets have expired – that sees developed countries cut their collective emissions by 30 per cent on 1990 levels by 2020.

It also wants to see developing nations, particularly the major emerging economies, contain the growth in their emissions by keeping them 15-30 per cent below projected levels in 2020.

The EU says these targets are essential in order that global warming does not exceed 2°C above pre-industrial levels, a level above which scientists say the risk of irreversible and possibly catastrophic environmental changes will become far greater.

“The financial crisis has underlined the folly of ignoring clear warning signs,” said Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas. “With climate change we cannot afford to repeat this mistake if we are to prevent dangerous and possibly catastrophic economic and social consequences in the coming decades. Even if it is too early to expect major breakthroughs, the Poznan conference must shift gear from exploratory discussions to concrete negotiations and send a clear signal that the world is on track to conclude an ambitious climate treaty in Copenhagen a year from now."

According to Point Carbon, the Poznan negotiations will be dominated by two issues. Firstly, how negotiations will go between the Umbrella Group – US, Japan, Canada and Australia – and the developing countries, including China, on binding emissions targets (the main line of conflict in the negotiations so far). Secondly, reform of the Kyoto Protocol's Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), an important channel of funding and technology for low-carbon development in developing countries, and the ranges of emission reduction targets for developed countries.
 
“We expect that the long list of possible changes to the CDM will be narrowed down to a short list, and sectoral crediting, whereby a sector is credited for performance rather than an individual project, could feature on the list”, said senior analyst at Point Carbon, Andreas Arvanitakis. He added: “Were this to transpire then it could mean a ramping up of the CDM”.
 
As part of its objective to get a clear work programme on climate change negotiations for 2009 at Poznan, the EC said it would be looking for a “possible extraordinary ministerial meeting around mid-year”.

It also said it would be looking for a the following outcomes at the high-level conference:

    • Progress towards the adoption of a broad 'shared vision' for cooperative action, including targets for 2020 and 2050

    • A comprehensive review of how the Kyoto Protocol can be improved and strengthened. A decision on streamlining the management of the CDM is possible and could be implemented immediately

    • A firm decision on how to make Kyoto’s Adaptation Fund for developing countries operational as quickly as possible by overcoming its teething problems.