A group of the UK’s most prominent business leaders are warning that urgent action – including an accelerated shift towards greener methods of transport – is needed to prepare for the potentially devastating consequences of global oil production rates peaking in the next five years.
In its second report, published today, the
UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) warns that ‘
peak oil’ – the point at which the highest rate of global oil
production has been achieved, and from which future levels of production will either plateau, or begin to diminish – could be reached by 2015.
The resultant oil shortages, insecurity of supply and price volatility could lead to a destabilisation of economic, political and social activity, the report warns.
ITPOES – made up of Arup, Foster + Partners, Scottish and Southern Energy, Solarcentury, Stagecoach Group and Virgin – claims the UK will be particularly badly hit.
It says a tightening of supply will lead to greater oil import dependency, rising and volatile prices, inflationary pressures and, in particular, risks disruption of the
transport system.
The good news amongst all this doom and gloom is that ITPOES calculates that the world economic recession has delayed peak oil by two years – buying a coalition of Government and industry some valuable, but still limited, time in which to act.
“Working together, we must ensure the Government takes action to address the impact of the oil crunch and ensure the UK is better prepared to withstand higher and more volatile oil prices,” said Richard Branson, founder of Virgin Group.
The ITPOES report says that, whichever party wins this year’s election, the new Government must make developing a contingency plan to deal with peak oil a priority – though local authorities and businesses must face up to the challenge too.
Green transport revolutionAn important part of this would be the acceleration of the “
green transport revolution”, speeding up the ongoing introduction of lower carbon technologies and trials of sustainable biofuels.
This would not only cover private vehicles, but also wider transport network and ITPOES urges the Government not to cut investment in public transport.
None of this will work unless it is supported by behavioural changes, ITPOES warns. The group calls for policies and fiscal measures to be introduced to support and incentivise a shift from the traditional car to more fuel and carbon-efficient modes of transport.
“The UK’s freight network, cars and public transport systems are almost entirely dependent on oil,” commented Brian Souter, ceo of Stagecoach Group.
“The twin threats of the oil crunch and climate change make that unsustainable. We need urgent Government action to support alternative technologies and incentivise behavioural change to protect business, consumers and our environment.”
The transformation of the UK’s transport system as envisaged by ITPOES – with further electrification of the railways and the potential conversion of road vehicles to electric power – will mean significant changes to national demand patterns for electricity, which the Government must plan for, the group warns.
Renewable energy generationITPOES says it must also provide continued support for
renewable energy generation. Although its short-term impact will be limited, the group says the UK can aspire to be a major player in the new industries that are being created, “thus abating the long-term risks from peak oil, more general energy security, and climate change.”
“Practitioners in the low carbon industries know just how fast we could mobilise technologies able to soften the blow of the energy crunch while abating climate risk, given the chance,” said Dr Jeremy Leggett, chairman of solar energy company Solarcentury.
“At one level, only two things are standing in the way: a collective sense of urgency consistent with peak oil risk, and effective yoking of industry and government in strategic harness.”
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